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Nestucca

Nestucca (Independent Population)

Analyses of viability criteria (adult abundance, persistence, productivity, distribution, diversity and habitat) are presented for each independent population. Trends in adult abundance and habitat condition are presented for dependent populations.

Oncorhynchus kisutch

Abundance

Annual estimates of the abundance of naturally-produced spawners for each population.

Spawning Year	Nat. Origin Spawners × Nat. Origin Spawners The point estimate for natural origin spawner abundance, excluding jacks. Close	95% Confidence Interval × 95% Confidence Interval 95% confidence interval for wild abundance estimate Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal Abundance goal for wild fish specific to the marine survival category as stipulated in the Oregon Coastal Coho Conservation Plan (Appendix 2). Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close	Proportion of Goal × Proportion of Goal Observed abundance/ abundance goal Close
2021
2020
2019	4,602	2,437	7,300	63.0%
2018	1,072	785	14,200	8.0%
2017	4,495	2,080	14,200	32.0%
2016	2,412	1,016	14,200	17.0%
2015	1,029	446	7,300	14.0%
2014	6,369	3,148	16,200	39.0%
2013	946	539	14,200	7.0%
2012	1,751	669	14,200	12.0%
2011	7,857	3,826	16,200	49.0%
2010	1,947	1,016	16,200	12.0%
2009	4,252	2,737	16,200	26.0%
2008	1,844	623	14,200	13.0%
2007	394	316	7,300	5.0%
2006	1,876	934
2005	686	675
2004	4,695	1,378
2003	10,194
2002	16,698
2001	4,164
2000	1,219
1999	2,357
1998	202
1997	230
1996	440
1995	1,537
1994	266
1993	340
1992	604
1991	618
1990	160

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass -the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target 5 times or less in any 12-year period.

Distribution

The manner in which adults (spawners) are distributed within the freshwater portion of a population's home range.

Metrics

1. The percentage of random, spatially balanced surveys that have more than 4 wild adult spawners/mile (percent occupancy)

2. Comparison of the spatial pattern of potential spawning distribution to that observed using SVB or other spatial statistics.

Spawning Year	Total Sites Visited × Total Sites Visited Number of sites sampled Close	Occupied Sites × Occupied Sites Number of sites sampled that passed the criterion for occupancy (>= 4 naturally produced adult coho per mile) Close	Percent Total Occupied Sites × Percent Total Occupied Sites Percent of sampled sites that met the occupancy criterion for total fish (= occupied sites / total sites) Close	Percent Wild Occupied Sites × Percent Wild Occupied Sites Percent of sampled sites that met the occupancy criterion for wild fish (= occupied sites / total sites) Close	Proportion of Goal Wild Sites × Proportion of Goal Wild Sites Percent of the delisting goal for wild occupied sites Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal Goal for percent of surveyed streams occupied under specified marine survival conditions. Goals could not be determined for Beaver, Floras, and Sixes populations due to inadequate data for a regression between spawners and occupancy. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close
2021	7					81%
2020	10					81%
2019	21	19	91%	91%	118%	77%
2018	21	7	33%	29%	35%	81%
2017	23	18	78%	78%	97%	81%
2016	9	8	89%	89%	110%	81%
2015	12	7	58%	50%	65%	77%
2014	12	10	83%	75%	93%	81%
2013	31	13	42%	42%	52%	81%
2012	21	13	62%	57%	70%	81%
2011	30	26	87%	67%	82%	81%
2010	12	9	75%	75%	93%	81%
2009	13	9	69%	69%	85%	81%
2008	11	8	73%	73%	90%	81%
2007	10	2	20%	10%	13%	77%
2006	21	11	52%
2005
2004	19	13	68%
2003	19	16	84%
2002	13	10	77%
2001	22	13	59%
2000	21	10	48%
1999	15	2	13%
1998	16	2	13%

Evaluation Thresholds

Metric 1

Pass - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target five times or less in any 12-year period.

Metric 2

Pass - the observed regularity ratio is not significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed regularity ratio is significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Diversity

Within-population diversity is the result of phenotypic differences among individuals. These differences provide the flexibility of the population as a whole to respond successfully to short-term environmental variations. They are also the basis by which populations are able to adapt and evolve as conditions within their home range go through changes that are more permanent.

Metric

The average of the 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance for each independent population, as forecast from a population viability model.

Analysis Year	Harmonic Mean × Harmonic Mean Harmonic mean population abundance as predicted by a Ricker simulation model Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal A harmonic mean of spawner abundance greater than 1,200 (forecast from a population viability model) requires predicted maintenance of at least 97.5% of a population's heterozygosity over a 100-year period (Chilcote et al. 2005). Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close
2019	735	1,200
2007	2,850	1,200

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is greater than 1,200.

Fail - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is less than or equal to 1,200.

Habitat

The amount of available high quality habitat for all freshwater life stages in each independent population, excluding the lakes populations.

Habitat condition is evaluated using population specific winter habitat surveys in the range of coho salmon. These surveys began in 2007 with the goal of surveying each independent population or dependent population group once every 5 years. Not all populations in the Coast Coho ESU have been surveyed for habitat at this time therefore some populations will display no habitat data.

Survey Year	Miles Current × Miles Current Current miles of high quality habitat (capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) available Close	95% Confidence Interval × 95% Confidence Interval 95% confidence interval for estimate of current miles of high quality habitat Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal Miles of high quality habitat (capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) needed to achieve the desired abundance status goals. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close	Percent of Goal × Percent of Goal Current miles of high quality habitat/ goal *100 Close
2008	53.7	31.4	76	70.7%

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion, the miles of high quality habitat (i.e. capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) equals or exceeds the population-specific goals.

Persistence

The forecast probability of persistence for each independent population based on results from population viability analysis (PVA) models.

Analysis Year	Average Probability × Average Probability Average of all previous QET-1/QET50 fields Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal A persistence criterion of a 99% or greater probability of persistence significantly increases the likelihood that the ESU is will remain viable under extreme marine survival conditions. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close

Discussion and Rationale

A persistence criterion of a 99% or greater probability of persistence significantly increases the likelihood that the ESU will remain viable under extreme marine survival conditions while providing substantial environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. Future analyses will be based on an average persistence value from the four PVA models developed by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Analysis

Because of the uncertainty of demographic effects at low population size, the TRT used two levels of "quasi-extinction" (1 and 50) to model persistence of the populations.

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion it must have an average probability of persistence of 0.99 or greater as estimated by the four PVA models used by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Productivity

Annual estimates of the number of naturally produced recruits (progeny) per spawner (parent) (R/S) in the population.

Spawning Year	R/S × R/S The point estimate for the ratio of recruits from the designated brood year and RperStype, divided by the number of parent spawners responsible for that brood year. Straight ratio calculation, not a log/natural log transformation. Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal If abundance goal is not met, goal R/S is >= 1. Otherwise, R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, must be statistically greater than or equal to 1.0. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close
2020		1.0
2019	2.23	1.0
2018	1.18	1.0
2017	0.79	1.0
2016	2.65	1.0
2015	0.77	1.0
2014	0.93	1.0
2013	0.54	1.0
2012	0.48	1.0
2011	4.52	1.0
2010	5.07	1.0
2009	2.37	1.0
2008	2.69	1.0
2007	0.09	1.0
2006	0.20
2005	0.04
2004	1.16
2003	8.73
2002	7.45
2001	18.13
2000	4.70
1999	4.90
1998	0.12
1997	0.81

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - Over a 12-year period, R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically greater than or equal to 1.0.

Fail - Over a 12-year period R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically less than 1.0.

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Nestucca

Nestucca (Independent Population)

Abundance

Nat. Origin Spawners

95% Confidence Interval

Broad Sense Goal

Proportion of Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Distribution

Total Sites Visited

Occupied Sites

Percent Total Occupied Sites

Percent Wild Occupied Sites

Proportion of Goal Wild Sites

Broad Sense Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Diversity

Harmonic Mean

Broad Sense Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Habitat

Miles Current

95% Confidence Interval

Broad Sense Goal

Percent of Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Persistence

Average Probability

Broad Sense Goal

Discussion and Rationale

Analysis

Evaluation Thresholds

Productivity

R/S

Broad Sense Goal

Evaluation Thresholds