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Tillamook

Tillamook (Independent Population)

Analyses of viability criteria (adult abundance, persistence, productivity, distribution, diversity and habitat) are presented for each independent population. Trends in adult abundance and habitat condition are presented for dependent populations.

Oncorhynchus kisutch

Abundance

Annual estimates of the abundance of naturally-produced spawners for each population.

Spawning Year	Nat. Origin Spawners × Nat. Origin Spawners The point estimate for natural origin spawner abundance, excluding jacks. Close	95% Confidence Interval × 95% Confidence Interval 95% confidence interval for wild abundance estimate Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal Abundance goal for wild fish specific to the marine survival category as stipulated in the Oregon Coastal Coho Conservation Plan (Appendix 2). Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close	Proportion of Goal × Proportion of Goal Observed abundance/ abundance goal Close
2021
2020
2019	3,961	2,158	14,700	27.0%
2018	2,035	1,135	28,300	7.0%
2017	2,927	1,566	28,300	10.0%
2016	7,102	3,483	28,300	25.0%
2015	1,345	759	14,700	9.0%
2014	20,090	7,262	32,400	62.0%
2013	4,402	3,445	28,300	16.0%
2012	1,686	1,041	28,300	6.0%
2011	19,250	7,145	32,400	59.0%
2010	14,890	10,412	32,400	46.0%
2009	16,251	6,146	32,400	50.0%
2008	4,828	2,447	28,300	17.0%
2007	2,295	1,251	14,700	16.0%
2006	8,774	3,491
2005	1,995	1,165
2004	2,532	1,420
2003	13,008
2002	13,334
2001	1,944
2000	2,178
1999	1,831
1998	358
1997	437
1996	733
1995	341
1994	1,105
1993	571
1992	176
1991	1,577
1990	80

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass -the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed spawner abundance is > the marine survival-specific escapement target 5 times or less in any 12-year period.

Distribution

The manner in which adults (spawners) are distributed within the freshwater portion of a population's home range.

Metrics

1. The percentage of random, spatially balanced surveys that have more than 4 wild adult spawners/mile (percent occupancy)

2. Comparison of the spatial pattern of potential spawning distribution to that observed using SVB or other spatial statistics.

Spawning Year	Total Sites Visited × Total Sites Visited Number of sites sampled Close	Occupied Sites × Occupied Sites Number of sites sampled that passed the criterion for occupancy (>= 4 naturally produced adult coho per mile) Close	Percent Total Occupied Sites × Percent Total Occupied Sites Percent of sampled sites that met the occupancy criterion for total fish (= occupied sites / total sites) Close	Percent Wild Occupied Sites × Percent Wild Occupied Sites Percent of sampled sites that met the occupancy criterion for wild fish (= occupied sites / total sites) Close	Proportion of Goal Wild Sites × Proportion of Goal Wild Sites Percent of the delisting goal for wild occupied sites Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal Goal for percent of surveyed streams occupied under specified marine survival conditions. Goals could not be determined for Beaver, Floras, and Sixes populations due to inadequate data for a regression between spawners and occupancy. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close
2021	8					81%
2020	12					81%
2019	23	14	61%	61%	75%	81%
2018	25	11	44%	40%	49%	81%
2017	19	12	63%	63%	78%	81%
2016	20	15	75%	75%	93%	81%
2015	10	4	40%	32%	39%	81%
2014	14	13	93%	86%	106%	81%
2013	27	19	70%	63%	78%	81%
2012	24	10	42%	33%	41%	81%
2011	31	28	90%	61%	76%	81%
2010	21	18	86%	86%	106%	81%
2009	19	19	100%	100%	123%	81%
2008	9	6	67%	67%	82%	81%
2007	6	4	67%	17%	21%	81%
2006	15	12	80%
2005	9	6	67%
2004	23	14	61%
2003	35	27	77%
2002	34	27	79%
2001	29	14	48%
2000	31	12	39%
1999	30	11	37%
1998	27	3	11%

Evaluation Thresholds

Metric 1

Pass - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed percent occupancy is greater than or equal to the marine survival-specific occupancy target five times or less in any 12-year period.

Metric 2

Pass - the observed regularity ratio is not significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Fail - the observed regularity ratio is significantly different from a random distribution at least six times in any 12-year period.

Diversity

Within-population diversity is the result of phenotypic differences among individuals. These differences provide the flexibility of the population as a whole to respond successfully to short-term environmental variations. They are also the basis by which populations are able to adapt and evolve as conditions within their home range go through changes that are more permanent.

Metric

The average of the 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance for each independent population, as forecast from a population viability model.

Analysis Year	Harmonic Mean × Harmonic Mean Harmonic mean population abundance as predicted by a Ricker simulation model Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal A harmonic mean of spawner abundance greater than 1,200 (forecast from a population viability model) requires predicted maintenance of at least 97.5% of a population's heterozygosity over a 100-year period (Chilcote et al. 2005). Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close
2019	807	1,200
2007	721	1,200

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is greater than 1,200.

Fail - If 100-year harmonic mean of spawner abundance is less than or equal to 1,200.

Habitat

The amount of available high quality habitat for all freshwater life stages in each independent population, excluding the lakes populations.

Habitat condition is evaluated using population specific winter habitat surveys in the range of coho salmon. These surveys began in 2007 with the goal of surveying each independent population or dependent population group once every 5 years. Not all populations in the Coast Coho ESU have been surveyed for habitat at this time therefore some populations will display no habitat data.

Survey Year	Miles Current × Miles Current Current miles of high quality habitat (capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) available Close	95% Confidence Interval × 95% Confidence Interval 95% confidence interval for estimate of current miles of high quality habitat Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal Miles of high quality habitat (capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) needed to achieve the desired abundance status goals. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close	Percent of Goal × Percent of Goal Current miles of high quality habitat/ goal *100 Close
2009	42.4	37.6	153	27.7%

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion, the miles of high quality habitat (i.e. capable of producing > 2,800 smolts/mile) equals or exceeds the population-specific goals.

Persistence

The forecast probability of persistence for each independent population based on results from population viability analysis (PVA) models.

Analysis Year	Average Probability × Average Probability Average of all previous QET-1/QET50 fields Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal A persistence criterion of a 99% or greater probability of persistence significantly increases the likelihood that the ESU is will remain viable under extreme marine survival conditions. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close

Discussion and Rationale

A persistence criterion of a 99% or greater probability of persistence significantly increases the likelihood that the ESU will remain viable under extreme marine survival conditions while providing substantial environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. Future analyses will be based on an average persistence value from the four PVA models developed by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Analysis

Because of the uncertainty of demographic effects at low population size, the TRT used two levels of "quasi-extinction" (1 and 50) to model persistence of the populations.

Evaluation Thresholds

For a population to pass this criterion it must have an average probability of persistence of 0.99 or greater as estimated by the four PVA models used by the TRT (Wainwright et al. 2008;Wainwright et al. 2006 poster).

Productivity

Annual estimates of the number of naturally produced recruits (progeny) per spawner (parent) (R/S) in the population.

Spawning Year	R/S × R/S The point estimate for the ratio of recruits from the designated brood year and RperStype, divided by the number of parent spawners responsible for that brood year. Straight ratio calculation, not a log/natural log transformation. Close	Broad Sense Goal × Broad Sense Goal If abundance goal is not met, goal R/S is >= 1. Otherwise, R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, must be statistically greater than or equal to 1.0. Populations of naturally produced fish comprising the ESU are sufficiently abundant, productive, and diverse (in terms of life histories and geographic distribution) that the ESU as a whole will: a) be self-sustaining, and b) provide environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. This goal represents a condition of the ESU that is significantly higher than a level where it could be considered a potential candidate for listing under federal ESA. Close
2020		1.0
2019	0.65	1.0
2018	1.70	1.0
2017	0.16	1.0
2016	1.63	1.0
2015	1.00	1.0
2014	1.19	1.0
2013	0.34	1.0
2012	0.12	1.0
2011	4.21	1.0
2010	6.37	1.0
2009	1.96	1.0
2008	2.46	1.0
2007	0.77	1.0
2006	0.72
2005	0.15
2004	1.29
2003	5.71
2002	7.09
2001	5.25
2000	4.73
1999	2.02
1998	0.35
1997	0.25

Evaluation Thresholds

Pass - Over a 12-year period, R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically greater than or equal to 1.0.

Fail - Over a 12-year period R/S values, standardized to a spawner density equal to the spawner abundance goal for each marine survival category, are statistically less than 1.0.

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Tillamook

Tillamook (Independent Population)

Abundance

Nat. Origin Spawners

95% Confidence Interval

Broad Sense Goal

Proportion of Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Distribution

Total Sites Visited

Occupied Sites

Percent Total Occupied Sites

Percent Wild Occupied Sites

Proportion of Goal Wild Sites

Broad Sense Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Diversity

Harmonic Mean

Broad Sense Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Habitat

Miles Current

95% Confidence Interval

Broad Sense Goal

Percent of Goal

Evaluation Thresholds

Persistence

Average Probability

Broad Sense Goal

Discussion and Rationale

Analysis

Evaluation Thresholds

Productivity

R/S

Broad Sense Goal

Evaluation Thresholds